Gaziantep Castle is regarded as one of the models of fortress buildings in Türkiye,which was severely damaged in the earthquake on February 6.
For the world economy,the biggest impact of the Türkiye earthquake is not output,but logistics transportation and its pattern,especially the impact on the international oil and gas energy transportation pattern and oil and gas pipeline layout,which may be quite far-reaching.After the earthquake,it is worth noting whether Türkiye can maintain its status as an international oil and gas transportation hub,which also casts a shadow on the idea of elevating Türkiye’s status as an international oil and gas transportation hub.
The earthquake on February 6 and 7 has claimed tens of thousands of lives in Türkiye and Syria so far.The World Health Organization(WHO)estimates that the total number of people affected is more than 26 million,which has caused heavy damage to Türkiye’s economic and social fields.
Over the years,Türkiye’s economic growth performance has been quite dazzling,and it was once regarded as one of the hottest and most promising emerging market countries in the international market.However,since reaching US$957.5 billion in 2013,Türkiye’s nominal GDP at current US dollar prices has generally tended to shrink,falling to US$720.1 billion from 2014 to 2020,less than US$770.8 billion in 2008.Although it has rebounded since then,Türkiye’s nominal GDP(US$853.5 billion)in 2022 is still less than that in 2012(US$880.1 billion),and its per capita GDP(US$9961)is less than that in 2008(US$10778).The high inflation and rapid devaluation that had been curbed made a comeback,and Türkiye’s inflation rate was among the highest in the world.Considering that Türkiye’s national unemployment rate and poverty rate are as high as 10.8%and 17.1%respectively,ranking first in relevant indicators of OECD countries,Türkiye is hit by a big earthquake at this moment,and its economic prospects are bleak.
As far as the world economy is concerned,the economies of Türkiye and Syria account for a relatively small proportion in the global economic territory,which is not enough to have a major impact.However,for the whole world economy,the biggest impact of the earthquake is not the output,but the logistics transportation and its pattern,especially the impact on the international oil and gas energy transportation pattern and oil and gas pipeline layout,which is likely to be quite far-reaching.
Türkiye has unique geographical advantages and is the hub of international trade logistics transportation.In particular,Europe and the Middle East,the world’s largest energy import and consumption area,and Central Asia Caspian Sea,two major oil and gas energy enrichment areas,are located on both sides of Türkiye.This location makes Türkiye a hub for international energy transportation,especially oil and gas pipeline transportation.International political competition further elevates Türkiye’s position as an international oil and gas transportation hub.
However,the country is located at the intersection of multiple geological plates,with numerous crustal fault zones,and 96%of the country is located in seismic zones,with high seismic risk.After the earthquake,the market is expected to take relevant risks into account,which will affect the value of a number of major infrastructure projects that have been completed and are to be built in Türkiye,and the financing costs of investment and construction will rise significantly.
At present,it is worth paying attention to the impact of major earthquakes on the layout of international oil and gas pipelines.Although not the epicenter of the earthquake,Türkiye’s most important oil and gas transportation hub port,the Central Asian crude oil export portal,Ceyhan Port,was not far from the epicenter,and was closed due to the earthquake.This port is the intersection of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan(hereinafter referred to as”Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline”,BTC)and Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipelines,of which the designed annual transportation capacity of the Badij pipeline is 50 million tons(about 1 million barrels/day),and the designed transportation capacity of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is 1.5 million barrels/day.In actual operation,the crude oil transportation volume of the Badej pipeline alone has reached 2004.7 million barrels and 224.39 million barrels in 2021 and 2022,respectively.The ship schedule data shows that the crude oil cargo flow of the port was about 1 million barrels/day before the earthquake.After the earthquake,it is worth noting whether Türkiye can maintain its status as an international oil and gas transportation hub,which also casts a shadow on the idea of elevating Türkiye’s status as an international oil and gas transportation hub.
Affected by the big earthquake,the plan of”de Russianization”of European oil and gas supply may rely more on North Africa and West Africa than on the Central Asia Caspian Sea oil and gas via Türkiye and bypassing Russia,as previously conceived.
This medium-and long-term change in the source of oil and gas imports in Europe may not only impact the political situation in North Africa and West Africa,but also mean that the dilemma of energy supply in Europe will be further aggravated in the medium-and long-term.From an economic point of view,Russia is the best choice for Europe to obtain abundant and cheap energy supply nearby,and also has the ability to maintain the basic domestic order independently,while the political situation in West Asia,North Africa and West Africa is extremely volatile.If the European oil and gas import route changes,it is not the best choice for Europe.